Goldman Sachs Says the Housing Market Is Frozen. Here Is What the Numbers Actually Show in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, and Monterey Counties

The short answer is no, our local market is not frozen, but it is definitely tighter and more selective than it was before. Goldman Sachs made headlines recently with a sobering national forecast, and it is worth understanding what that means for the three counties I serve every day.

According to a Fortune report published October 20, 2026, Goldman Sachs projects just 3.9 million existing home sales nationally in 2027, which would land about 26% below the 2019 level. They also forecast home prices rising just 1.1% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. The core reason is one you have probably heard: owners who locked in favorable financing years ago simply are not listing. So what does that picture look like up close, here on the Central Coast and in Silicon Valley?

Is the Santa Clara Market Frozen?

Not even close. Santa Clara County is the most active of the three markets I track, and the September 2026 numbers prove it. With just 1.8 months of supply, this is firmly a seller's market. Closed sales of single family homes came in at 726, which is actually slightly ahead of the 719 closings recorded in September 2019.

The Goldman effect does show up on the supply side, though. Total inventory of 1,224 homes is up 21% compared to a year ago but is still 24% below September 2019 levels. New listings at 943 are also running just under the 983 posted in September 2019. So more homes are available than a year ago, but fewer owners are listing than they used to. Homes that do come to market are moving fast, with a median of just 12 days on market and a sale to list ratio of 103%. The median price for single family homes sits at $1.88 million, down 3.6% year over year. The condo segment tells a different story, with 3.2 months of supply and a median of $850,000, down 10.5% year over year, signaling softer demand in that segment.

Is Santa Cruz Softening?

Santa Cruz is reading as balanced with a softening lean. At 3.8 months of supply, it sits comfortably in balanced territory, but a few trends deserve attention. Closed sales of 125 are down 18% from the 152 closings in September 2019, and median days on market jumped from 14 in August to 26 in September. On the positive side, the median price of $1.25 million is up 1.2% year over year, making Santa Cruz the only one of the three counties showing year over year price appreciation for single family homes. Inventory of 479 remains 17% below 2019 levels, so the supply shortage is real here too. Condos are softer, with a median of $697,000, down 11.5% year over year.

Is Monterey Getting Tighter?

Monterey County is actually tightening. The California Association of Realtors reports 3.5 months of supply in September, down from 4.4 months a year ago. Closed sales of 171 are up 19.6% year over year, even though they remain 8% below the 185 closings from September 2019. The supply picture here is striking: inventory of 569 homes is 35% below September 2019 levels, and new listings at 189 are down 30% from the 269 new listings posted in September 2019 and down another 6.9% just from a year ago. Homes are selling in a median of about 27 days, and sellers are getting 99% of list price. The median sits around $920,000, down approximately 3% year over year.

What Do All Three Counties Have in Common?

Every single one of these markets is running well below 2019 inventory levels. That is the Goldman thesis playing out locally in real time. Owners are not listing at the pace they used to, and that supply restraint is the defining force in all three counties right now. The difference from the gloomy national picture is that buyers here are still active enough to absorb that limited supply. Homes that are priced right and presented well are not sitting, they are selling.

A Quick Look Across All Three Counties

What Does This Mean for You?

For Sellers

If you have been waiting for the "right time," here is the thing: fewer neighbors are listing than back in 2019. That means a well prepared, well priced home faces less competition than it would have in 2019. In Santa Clara especially, buyers are still paying over list price. In Santa Cruz and Monterey, pricing is more sensitive, but motivated buyers are out there. Taking advantage of it starts with knowing what your home is actually worth today.

For Buyers

The national freeze narrative can make buyers feel like there is nothing to find, but the data shows homes are selling in all three counties. Yes, you are competing in a tighter pool of inventory, so you need to be prepared, move decisively, and know your priorities. In Santa Cruz and Monterey, the pace gives you a little more room to breathe than in the Santa Clara market, where 12 median days on market means you need to be ready to act.

For Investors

The condo segment deserves a close look. Median condo prices are down 10.5% year over year in Santa Clara and down 11.5% in Santa Cruz. For an investor with a long time horizon, that kind of price softening in supply constrained markets can represent a real opportunity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to sell a home in Santa Clara County?

The data says yes, for single family homes. Inventory remains 24% below 2019 levels, homes are selling in a median of 12 days, and the sale to list price ratio is 103%. Fewer competing listings means your home gets more attention if it is priced and presented well.

Why are home prices down year over year in some of these markets if inventory is also low?

Low inventory does not automatically push prices up if buyer demand is also moderated. In Santa Clara and Monterey, prices have dipped slightly year over year even as supply stays tight. Santa Cruz single family home prices are actually up 1.2% year over year, showing that local dynamics vary even within a short drive.

What does the Goldman Sachs forecast actually mean for local home values?

Goldman's national outlook reflects broad trends, but local markets have their own supply and demand dynamics. All three counties here are running well below 2019 inventory levels, which means sellers face less competition. The key takeaway is that fewer listings mean a correctly priced home stands out more, not less, than it would in a more liquid market.

Should I wait to buy in Santa Cruz or Monterey since they seem softer?

Both markets are balanced, not declining. Monterey is actually tightening, with months of supply compressing from 4.4 to 3.5 over the past year and closed sales up nearly 20% year over year. Waiting in a tightening market can mean facing more competition down the road. The best move is to get clear on your goals and look at the numbers with a local professional who knows what is actually happening on the ground.

What's your home worth today?

If reading all of this has you wondering where your own home fits in the picture, I would love to help you find out. I offer a free, personalized home valuation with no pressure and no guesswork, just a real look at what the market says your home is worth right now. Give me a call or send a text at (650) 695-1919 and let's have a conversation.

Sources:
MLSListings September 2026 County Summary, Single Family Homes
California Association of Realtors, September 2026 Sales Release
MLSListings September 2019 Single Family Home Market Data Report
Fortune, October 20, 2026: Goldman Sees a Housing Freeze Through 2027

Sirrom Alizem
(650) 695-1919
sirrom@realtywithsirrom.com
www.realtywithsirrom.com
eXp Realty Nor Cal Inc, DRE #02137532